How the car will again revolutionize the world

I've long been a proponent and follower of the idea that cars should drive themselves.  I've watched and read about the Darpa Challenge  and even quietly thought the government should fund a whole parallel  infrastructure where only self driving cars were allowed.     Last October when I found out that google had been working on a project I was downright giddy.  If you haven't seen the video from this year's TED conference it's awesome to see the car in action. Video Below

 Why am a so excited about this prospect?


1. Decoupling of the "you are what you drive" idea-   For some unknown reason people believe their car is an extension of who they are as a person.  "I'm a austin martin" or "I'm a ford pinto".   I am very confident that once you move from a driver of the vehicle to a passenger this oneness with the car will diminish if not disappear altogether and once this happens we can begin to just get in the next car that's going our way.   If a car is just a way to get from A to B then as long as what I'm riding in is safe, comfortable and clean it doesn't really matter and I'm just trying to get somewhere.

2. Cars sit idle most of the day- 85% of the time your car isn't being used.  This is just a plain waste of resources, the world could use a lot fewer cars IF they were used more efficiently, then the resources used to build and maintain those cars could move elsewhere in our society. Maybe most importantly we would need much less parking and parking lots to keep those cars.

3. Usher in the use of electric cars.   Electricity is cleaner and more efficient than gas burning cars.  Given it doesn't matter what car I get in cars can be sent to a charging station when the need charged and a fully charged replaces it on the street to pick up the next passenger

4. Productivity increase-  Americans spend more than 100 hours every year in their car .  That's more than two weeks of work.  There's a lot of lost productivity that could happen now with ipads, smartphones and laptops while people were commuting.   Once there is a realization by business of how much can be done without being in the office there will be less people going into the office, and will just work from home part of the time

5. Goods getting to market faster-  Without the restriction of how much time can be spend driving computers will just drive goods to their destination without stops.   Again this will allow the more than 3,000,000  drivers move to more productive activities for our world.

6. Getting Goods to MY HOUSE- How many of my trips in a car are to "run to get something"?  there's a lot and once the car can pick up some milk and bring it home is there really a reason for me to be inside the thing?

7.  Safety.  There are more than 30,000 people in the US alone killed in accidents.  That's not to mention those hurt or incapacitated for life. Self driving cars won't reduce that to zero but even if it cuts it in half that's great.  Notice I didn't mention safety first.  It's very important but there's so much more promise of a autonomous transportation device.

8. Finally the Flying Car--  Okay I know, I know this is the thing of science fiction but I do hold out some hope here.    My thought is that once we are comfortable with computers driving us around we'll save more on infrastructure costs and make all this other happen faster by just having flying cars.  But maybe that just makes me like this onion anchor.

Layer upon Layer

One of the things that stuck with me from the book I read several months ago "What Technology Wants" is  how written word has contributed to science.  Kelly makes what seems like an obvious point now that without written text we would constantly have to rediscover things.    However,  now we can write down the formula or the methodology or the theorem or proof and it becomes part of the science that following generations can build upon as "fact".     This means the very next thing that is built is just a culmination  of all the work that has happend prior.  

The same is true of the tools and "technology" of today.    The iphone has become one of the best things for technology because it's made it simple enough that even a toddler can use it.   The person who designs the hardware or even the interface doesn't have to know anything about code or processors or any of the lower level technology.  It's been built by prior programers and while always being enhanced by each contributor, those programers allow us to have postions like designers, and User Interface people.

In this way each advance in the tools allows the next people who come along to build something, faster, easier or better looking.   Only in recent years have we seen the rise of the importance of the designer.   That's because before when we were just laying out text on a screen, and data input via keyboard there wasn't that many choices to make.   Technology begets more technology and more jobs for people to focus on different areas of the technology.   There was a time when everyone in computers were a programers, but then we needed more hardware people, network people, database people, help desk, trainers, project managers, designers.   Evolution of the tech, involves evolution of the tools and ultimately the people who use those tools.

Great Launchpad Experience

5 Months ago I received the acceptance email to the Founder Institute.  I had applied just to see if I could get in, once I did I was determined to go even though the class was in Houston.  I told my employer who supported me and helped me to get to classes each week.

Founder Institue is run by the great Adeo Ressi.  I can't say enough good things about Adeo, he's very tough and has been described as "harsh" and that's because he's interested in helping those who are serious build enduring companies.  If you are serious he's your biggest fan and supporter, but if you just thought you might kind of like to start something then it's probably not for you and through the program you'll find that out quickly.  If you just needed a little (or a lot) pressure, accountability, and kick in the pants to start building your dream company then FI is for you, roll up your sleeves and apply.

There's no doubt this program will prevent you and your company from making very rookie mistakes.  Through a combination of great mentors from companies like Mint, Evernote, TechCrunch, Eyefi, BitTorrent, Like, and many more they teach you each week how to build your company and share lessons learned.   You have work to complete each week that's not designed to be just "homework" but make you take steps to build your company.  At the end you have a clear vision, and the basics of getting your company off the ground, and the hard work starts.

Founder Institute is a life changing experience if you've been waiting to start a company, run to enroll in a semester now and get busy, there's no better time than now to start.   Again, I can't say enough good things about Adeo for some reason I think there's 30 hours in his day for all the things he gets done.  

My fellow graduates from Houston.

www.locotext.com
www.eggnest.com
www.cloudwire.tv
www.caringwings.com
www.servicevines.com (me)

Incremental progress is very marginal

I recently read a book from a guy who I have a lot of respect for.  Kevin Kelly has a great blog  and his book "what technology wants" is fantastic.  

In this book he tells the story of a missionary who is working in china.  In the village that he works with all the people gather crops manually without the use of any tools.   Of course the missionary saw how inefficient this was and wanted to help so he ordered a Sickle from his home country and had it sent.  Of course the villagers at first thought the technology was great.  The sickle was going to save them so much time and labor.   But that evening the villagers had a meeting among themselves.  The next morning the chief told the missionary the sickle must be destroyed.  Why the missionary asked?  The Chief explained that the tribe was concerned that a thief would get a hold of the tool and be able to steal all of their crops in a single night.  

This is the plight of technology, all technology has some good points and and some bad points.  Many people will tell you your idea is bad or that technology is the demise of our culture. However, all imaginable technology is neither 100% good or 100% bad.  Technology and ideas are some combination of both good and bad.  So the question that really must be ask is, does this technology's good points outweigh the bad.  As long as the idea is 49% bad and 51% good then we are making progress.  That means we are helping society.  Today cars kill 40,000 people a year.  What if we built "robot" cars that drove themselves and took people places but accidentally killed 20,000 people would be clamoring to say that we needed to remove the robot cars despite less people were being killed.  Progress comes in incremental levels 1% at a time. 

Only the best survive- Founder Institute Houston

Here are the latest from my founder institute class.  We've lost a lot of members between the first night and the third session.  If you are thinking you are ready for a startup incubator you better make sure that you've thought a lot about your idea, and you know what you're made of.   This program isn't for people who think they sort of kind of might want to start something someday and wow look cool the Mint guy is a mentor so I'll join.  If that's you don't waste your time or your peers and mentors, there's a good chance you'll not make it.

It's also not for people with thin skin in the third session not one person who pitched their idea was told "hey that sounded great let's tweak it just a little".  No you were pushed hard on the how and why of your idea? Is the market big enough?  What problem are you solving and one of the main questions is always "What are you building again?"   While that seems easy I think founders are "cursed with knowledge" to borrow a line from Chip and Dan Heath's Made to stick  .   They've thought about their idea so long it seems to them like everyone should just naturally understand it, guess what THEY DON'T. You better get to the point you can explain it in one sentence in a way your mom knows what you're talking about.  Simple, Simple, Simple

Founder Institute is really a challenge and I find it stretching my abilities in a good way.   It's rough traveling from Oklahoma once a week but as they say what doesn't kill you.   Here are some of my takeaway's from the 3rd session.

1. You aren't going to be the first person with this idea and if you are it probably sucks or is too early.  This goes right in line with what I remember reading from Steve Blank's blog a few weeks ago, which talks about the first to market fallacy.
2. While you need to be lean and flexible (see lean startup) but you can also rule out a lot of ideas with research. and lots of it.   You need to know how big your market is?  Who are your competitors (yes there are some) and what kind of market are you in (again you think this part is easy but it's not) 
3. You can find a lot of this using competitor's blogs, press releases, twitter, delicious, etc, there's a good chance they've done a lot of the research for you
4. Figure out how to get to $100 million in revenue in 5 years if you expect to build an enduring company.
5. Know your value proposition as Dave McClure says "Your solution is not my problem" if it isn't a pain point for people you are going to have a tough time convincing people to use it.

In summary, Be flexible with a very simple idea with a great value prop, in a big market (greater than 1Billion) by doing a lot of research and interviews. 

The Beginning

In mid October I found out I was accepted to the Founder Institute.   While honored to be accepted after taking the test and completed the application, I figured Houston was just too far to commute for 14+ weeks.   After thinking about it further and realizing that my friends where tired of hearing the ten thousand start up ideas I had I decided to see if I had what it took to create and manage my dream company.   I told my employer about my intentions to make the weekly commute to Houston and to my surprise they were so supportive of what I was doing they offered to become early "investors" by paying for me to fly down each week.   I can't say enough times the group of guys I work with you'd never find anywhere else.

Enough with how I arrived and more about the program itself.    Entrance into the program is based on an application and a couple of tests that test your ability to learn, and adapt.  The institute is a top notch program, I did my research.  Adeo, the founder has created over 2 Billion and value in companies he has either started or been involved in.   The CEO mentor list reads like a who's who in Silicon Valley, mentors from  household names like Mint, Evernote, QIK, techcruch, Evernote, Blippy, eyefi, etc.   The program is structured for those of us who still have "day jobs" as all the classes are at night.   This is different than other startup incubator programs like techstars or Y combinator.   Also different from those other programs you don't have to have a co-founder (which I do not) or have a set idea, yet Founder Institute is the largest startup incubator with classes all over the world.

The first class reminded me of the first day of western civ in at a university I attended.  It was the make or break class.  Adeo, made you question your resolve to see if you were really going to finish what you start.   He was clear about the effort required and that many people don't make it.  BUT if you do make it to graduation you'll have an awesome company.    I was also astounded how he was focused on your idea (if you had one) and was all business but took a genuine interest in you and your idea.   He's a pretty amazing person in my dealings thus far.  The first night we were divided into groups and given a pretty lengthy assignment to separate those who where there to check it out and those who were ready to get to work.

I was also lucky enough to schedule some "office hours" with him the next morning.  This was one of four 30 min sessions he offered to help you to refine your idea.   I had about four and he was quick to help me narrow it down.   Again, he showed he really wanted me to succeed.

Our small group has proven to be made of some pretty spectacular people.   They are all very smart with great ideas but the thing I like most is their willingness to help you with your idea.   Our group in the 3 meetings we have had thus far has proven to be awesome with lots of sharing of ideas and improvements to others ideas.  I can't wait to see what these guys build.

The first "real" class was on vision and values and our speakers where Matt Mandell who founded DC snacks and City Centric, Phil Libin of evernote and of course Adeo.  All the talks were good enough I went back and re-watched some of them on the FI site.   The next assignment is proving to be quite a chore but one I'm looking forward to getting it done.     There's no doubt I'm going to learn something through this process.    Who knows if I'll be successful but I'll have tried and learned and that's worth the price of this effort regardless.    

To the highest bidder

 

One of the problems with all the app stores is "app discovery" it's searchable but if it's a common keyword maybe you don't find exactly what you are looking for.  I can't imagine it's much longer before apple and google begin to sell "adwords" for apps.   My guess is that it would work exactly like adwords works today on the google search site.   Based on rankings, downloads, and price you are willing to pay some of the results will be sponsored ads.    It's pretty easy money for both Apple/Google and really helps those in the marketplace who have a great product "buy" their way to critical mass.   

We are retuning to "walled gardens" and closed systems, Google was smart to get into the moblie space in a big way, if they are going to maintain growth it will need to be through mobile and that will mean more than just ads on search.