I finally cracked it

For more than a year now people have been speculating on an apple TV.  Not the plug in box but an actual display.  There's lots of reason for the speculation, the fact that they have been dabbling in this space with the apple TV set top box, they sell movies and shows on itunes and it's the last phase of the "digital hub" that  Steve Jobs envisioned.  To me though the most compelling arguments though is that if apple is going to continue to grow it will have to enter gigantic markets.   Given apple's size creating niche products won't move the revenue needle at their scale, and since no one is speculating they build cars, televisions make a lot of sense from a market size perspective.  Finally, jobs said in his recent bio that he wanted a TV that was easy to use and that he "finally cracked it".  

So what could apple do that would be a game changing?  My prediction is that they will partner with a one or two cable providers, let you connect your apple TV directly to the coax and eliminate the cable box, cable remote, DVR, DVD, and every other setup top box.  Other than power and cable it would not have ANY OTHER INPUTS.  Want to play games, use your ipad.  What about your DVD/Blue Ray player? Itunes. 

Here's why I think this will happen.

1. Apple doesn't have enough content to make a device without inputs so they'll need content from somewhere, most people aren't ready to completely give up cable.  I can't see an apple TV that has the same legacy connections today, since that's one of people's largest frustations. 

2. By partnering with 1-2 providers they can get the out of the box experience very "appley".  Plug it in, turn it on sign onto itunes and your done.

3. Limited rollout (think iphone) will create scarcity and thus people will want what they can't have.  Providers will fight to get the appletv, consumers will be asking their providers.  

4. Cable, internet, IPTV, music, games, will all be delivered seamlessly, you won't know/care if it the content is being delivered from the cable, internet, locally recorded, or via apps.   

5. Cable companies get to maintain the "status quo" of getting you to pay $100 and maybe more with easy subscriptions.   They can deliver content in the traditional multicast way or IPTV without you having to know or care, maximizing the value of their network.   Since this TV will only work on their system, you'll be locked in (again think cell phones).  Possibly they could even subside the sale of the device with long contracts.

6. It will create a differentiation for those providers who have it.  My guess is since AT&T did the iphone they'd do this deal, especially since they aren't the incumbent cable provider in most areas.   DirecTV is national but seems many apple fans wouldn't/couldn't put up a dish, therefore might not be the best first choice.

One device, one remote (your iOS device), no inputs, all Apple.

Early adopters left behind

Becoming the uber expert is fun.   Everyone at one time has been so good at something that  it seems they can answer any question related to it.  Over time though newer ways to do the same thing emerge, and the expert contends that they suck.   The old system is better, they say.   They move to discredit these improved methods claiming it's lacking in function, form or price.

As a new technology begins to emerge early adopters begin to gravitate to the latest "thing".   Home brew, hobbyists, and fans tinker around.   In fact almost all things that we now use as consumers were first part of the hacker culture.   As more and more people use the technology the methods to make things happen need to be lowered to make room for those who are less technical.  Usually for these advances raise all boats, meaning most everyone can benefit from the addition of tools that make it easier for the fat part of the bell curve to understand and adopt the technology.   Some of the best examples of this is transition from text based computers to graphical ones, special query languages (think google and their operators) to an easier to use interface, physical keyboards to a virtual one,  typesetting vs word processing and printing, content management systems vs html files only, farming vs going to the store, turning the crank on the car vs turning the key, oral tradition vs written words. 

Initially, early adopters shun this new way.  It's usually not better at first, but more importantly it's part of their identity.  They have become the go to guy/gal for how to make the complicated system work.   The early adopters become great at their craft, they become experts.  They have A LOT invested in learning all commands, systems, and specialized operators.  Only a select few, or chosen ones, can do the things they do.  While everyone else was ignoring the future they were investing in it.    In a way this stands to threaten their status as a gifted wizard of the technology.  They want to hold on to their way of doing things and their status, it's a defense mechanism.  

The early adopters say that the new system at usually lacks all the things that made the old system great, and to a point they are right.   The keyboard is better than speech recognition but slowly things are added that make it better and better.  Little by little bit by bit the new way begins to catch up with the old way, maybe even begin to pass it.  Now not everyone needs an expert to be proficient on this new technology, they can get by without an expert. The once uber expert might even be looked at as old school or out dated in their approach.   

At this point the expert can do one of a few things,  they can continue on in their old ways because there will always be someone who still needs an expert who remembers how to do it the old way.    They can reinvest and take what they know and adapt it to the new system becoming really valuable with a good historical grasp of things, or just learn something completely new.   The point here is that almost without exception despite how much they hate the change, society is better off.   The world is better off we all still don't have to grow our own food, can create their own website, and find things on the internet.   Progress has happened thanks to the efforts of the "geeks" but sometimes the geeks get left behind.

I miss Andriod and can't leave iOS- Tales of a flip flopper

I probably need a dual boot phone so I can choose the OS that I like at the moment.   As a way of background I've had both major smartphone platform in the past 3 years and several blackberries prior to that. I used the EVO for 15 months and the 3G iphone for 2 years prior.   With the introduction of the iPhone 4s last week a moved back to iOS for a while to see what's changed.   Peter Rojas had a great post the other day on why he doesn't use an iphone and summed it up best by saying there's a reason they call it personal technology.   So just like Peter, how I use my phone might be different than how you do and thus what's important to me won't be important to you.

The tl;dr version is best summed up from this comic 

http://main.makeuseoflimited.netdna-cdn.com/tech-fun/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/iphonandroiddifference.png

Now here are my thoughts.  

Touch - iOS feels just like liquid under your fingers.  I can't describe it but both the accuracy of the touch and scrolling is just better for me.  Winner: iOS

Widgets-  I loved this about Android, there were widgets for everything but most importantly I used a widget called Pure Calendar that would show me an agenda view in 3 lines for upcoming days.   iOS 5 does a little better with notifications than it used to but nothing beats a widget for this.  Winner: android

Notifications:  The new iOS notifications are almost exactly stolen from android however they have improved upon them.  Now I can see things like sender, subject, and what the notification is about.   Android had something called "ongoing" notifications for things like music that was running currently that I liked but the amount of info available in iOS notifications is just better now.  Another thing that android accels  is infinite configuring of notifications, make the light blink, vibrate, don't notify all app configurable infinite ways it seems. Winner: iOS

Camera: It's impossible to know how every camera performs but the 4s 8megapixel takes much better pics than my EVO and the gallery is much faster and easier to navigate than the EVO andriod  Winner: iOS

Google integration: This might seem like a loaded, item but if you depend on google services like gmail, google voice and google suggest, it's just better on android as you'd expect  Winner: Android 

Physical aspects:  Android comes in about every size you can imagine.   Big screens are a plus for me.  It's the hardest thing about going back to an iPhone for me.  I miss a 4.3" screen.   You can have a physical keyboard if you want.  Some of the phones are heavier and some are lighter than the iphone.   All that said there's something that just feels "right" about the iphone.  It's got a great build quality, the glass and metal make it very nice to hold in your hand.   TIE

Apps:  The apple app store is just better, there's better apps and the apps have more polish.  I don't know if android is just more difficult because it's so flexible, the amazon app store is better than the native android marketplace, but without question, the experience, the apps and all things third party are better in apple's app store.  The only plus to andriod  is I can install whatever I want where apple has a tight control on their apps so you as a user can only install what apple has approved.   Winner: iOS

Multitasking: Android by a landslide.  iOS has some fast app switching things but with android I can leave one task to run or download, switch to another and know it's going to finish.  Switching is better on Android too, just hold down the home button and your last 8 apps show up to switch too.   Winner android

Battery:   Unknown but with Android it varied  A LOT day to day, and varies a lot person to person, device to device.  I'll know more in a few days but Android probably gets a nod here to having a replaceable battery in most units.  My experience with the EVO was really bad though in the until the last format.  Edge: android

Sceenshots:  I have no idea why google hasn't added this and it frustrated me at least once I week that I couldn't do it without rooting the phone.  Winner iOS

Reliability:  FOR ME, iOS is just better, I hardly ever have to reboot.  There were times I was rebooting at least once a day on android.  I formated my phone 3 times in the 15 months I had it due to lockups, battery issues, etc.   The one thing (first world problem) that drove me crazy was bluetooth.  I have bluetooth in my car and if I was connected to wifi and left my garage the bluetooth would disconnect.  I also couldn't use my address book in my car, it was a small thing but was a big pain almost every day.    Apple has a small number of devices and controls what can run and when on the device so it makes sense it would provide a little more reliability: Winner iOS

Storage:  Well the great thing about android phone is that most of the time you can buy a cheap SD card to expand your storage vs paying outrageous prices for apple's memory.   The downside is you have to manage what's installed on your SD card.  Apps can be installed on your SD card but many times I got a low disk space warning because I only had 512mb on the phone and many apps have to run in phone storage. So managing the disk space was annoying.  With iOS I don't have to manage it.  I have 16GB to use anyway I want.  TIE

Downloads: Better on andriod in every way.  I never had to worry if I was connected to wifi to do something like with iOS.  Download whole system updates over 3G, podcasts, audio books, ANYTHING.   I hate getting the message in iOS this is too big for cell data. Winner: android

Sharing: iOS touted with version 5 they had deep twitter integration.  That doesn't even compare to android's share button.  With android any app could tapp into the share function, email, evernote, facebook, twitter, g+ and every obscure social site you can think of.  All sharable from almost anywhere.  Winner Android

Cloud: iOS brought us iCloud.  It can store backups of my phone, apps, calendar, documents, photos and just about anything.   After formatting my Android phone 3 times, I can't tell you how frustrating it was to have to reload most everything and the marketplace only seemed to keep track of my purchased apps not my free ones.   It just wasn't seemless and you'd think that it would be.   However google based things worked pretty well, contacts, calendar, email.  Also the auto upload of pictures to G+ was a great cloud feature  Winner: iOS

Voice: Android has had voice actions for a long time.  Given I have a long commute I would use it a lot.   I  was amazed how good it was the first time I used it.   You could give it simple commands like "send text to" "search for" and of course speech to text.   Siri is just better though.  I can ask it questions and it will talk back to me.  Add to that iOS's new location based reminders and it's a pretty powerful combo.  I think it still has a ways to go since I have to think about what I can ask it but, the fact it reads things back to me and has more action items than google voice puts it in the lead for me Winner: iOS

It looks like the score on these things is 8 vs 6 which is why I have such a hard time picking a platform.  My wife might take this phone from me in March and give me a chance to reconsider platforms as google releases their answers to iOS 5 and the 4s.

Feed the Borg, start talking to your phone

I remember being promised my computer would understand me since I was a kid.   The first software I really remember testing for this  "speech recognition" was called voice type dictation from IBM.  It required a Pentium 90Mhz computer.  What do I remember about it?  My boss tried to show someone in the office and he said "This is an example of voice type dictation."  The computer promptly placed on the screen the text "I'm going on a boy's pike vacation".  Laughter ensued and an inside joke was born .   Many other attempts were made including our CEO who heard the dragon naturally speaking software combined with a digital recorder could replace his admin assistant and insisted I order one right away.  As you can imagine soon after he threw it into my office, claimed it was useless and another attempt at getting my computer to understand me was lost. With every try the promise of software makers were that if we only had X fast processor it would get better.  It never did.  

Enter goog-411. Goog-411 was a free service launched in 2007 to offer a free directory look-up service from your phone, eliminating the need for a costly information call to get a number.  Why did google do this?  To gather voice samples.  Data was the key, not only processing power.  This was the holy grail of speech recognition.  By gathering samples of people's voice and then having the user select the correct listing Google gathered endless data points. Google used that data then to launch their own voice products including andriod actions and promptly discontinued goog-411 3 years later. 

Talking into your smartphone via these apps has yielded a real leap in the ability for my computer to finally understand me.  Now we have Siri, apple's new personal assistant.  Siri not only promises to understand what I say but also translate that into actions.  It seems almost too good to be true. What's the weather today?  How do I get home?  What are the markets doing today?   Not only that but Siri will translate your words into emails and text messages.   


With every word spoken into your android or iPhone you give the system one more data point to understand you better the next time.   Over and Over, all around the world by using data points people are making these systems better.   The cloud + mobile phones have brought in a few years what couldn't be done in the previous decades. Acceleration will happen exponentially with millions of people with accents, lisps, and different pronunciations will feed the system making it better for each of us. 


My question will be how much will I need to think about what I can ask these systems?  When will I be able to say "Siri what's my daughter's grades?"  "How much money is in my account less what bills I have left to pay this month?",  "What were our sales this month?"  Being able to send a text message or get the weather is great. However, I'm looking for the friction to reach zero.  In order for voice recognition to become mainstream it's got to be able to answer almost anything I can ask it, having to consider what I can and can't say to my phone probably means other than if I'm driving I won't use it.   IF however I can ask it anything, and the barrier is low enough then voice systems can really make my life easier and help me get things done.  I real personal assistant.  I'm sure that our phones will teach us to speak to it just as it learns what we are saying.  My hope is that by feeding these systems more data and adding API's soon I'll be able to not even worry if my phone understands me. 

I can't use all this free software

I'm working on a startup (servicevines.com) and recently the WSJ article by mark Andreessen and a post by Arrington reminded me how I've overlooked just how far things have progressed since the start of the internet becoming the biggest disruption in my lifetime. Creative destruction is easier and cheaper than ever.   If I were trying to start a company in the first internet age I would have went about it buy going and buying the following software and hardware, this assumes I could find the money from someone to let me try.

• Development tools, I could have spent tens of thousands of dollars on what I can have for free now.
• Web Server software
• Web Server Hardware
• Bandwidth
• Analytic tools like webtrends
• email server and software
• Database Software
• Database Hardware

Today I use the following free solutions to accomplish the same thing.  

• Cake PHP
• Wordpress
• Free PHPFOG instance (upgraded to small instance)
• Google Analytics
• Google Apps
• MYSQL
• Sendgrid
• MailChip free (for marketing)
• Youtube
• all kinds of free and open source add-in's, tools, and community driven projects

There is more free software and services for startup out there than you could possibly use.  All this means you can find out if an idea you have is worth pursuing with just a little bit of time and effort.  In the old days it might cost upwards of $10,000 just to try your idea.  Today the barrier to starting a company is ZERO dollars.  $10,000 that most people don't have to ZERO is how far we have come. Couple this with thousands of limited trial services, or low priced starter services, free distribution of apps via various appstores and some free ads on sites like google and facebook and if you're going to start now is the time. It's amazing just in a 15 years how far we've come.

I just wonder what free services are out there I need to know about?

Want to face hangout?

Facebook, Google + and apple have all released video chat clients in the past year.   Not to mention all the ways that existed before like skype, google chat, yahoo, AIM, QIK and probably 10,000 more I can't recall.  Yet never once have I seen someone using this technology in the wild.   I really don't even know people who use it on a regular basis.  Most people try it once for novelty sake, maybe have a couple of scheduled conference calls a year using video calling, or maybe use it occasionally to talk to their kids.  Video calling is a dream that people have had for decades and while technically possible now, is for whatever reason just socially not there yet.  People just don't make video calls.

I'm as excited as anyone about the idea but not sure how it's going to happen.  One way to make video calling for support calls.   This could be a real boon to any company who has to troubleshoot things or needs to see things first hand.  All support telephone services should have some kind of video chat. This does a couple of things, you can show the person your problem, and both sides can see they are dealing with a "real" human.    Have a plumbing problem show the plumber,  show your insurance adjuster your car,  use your phone to show tech support what's on your screen, use it to show your doctor the bump on your leg.  Many times people just need to see what you are talking about but are separated by distance.   Why else aren't people adopting video?   It's not because they don't want to see each other, you still walk to people's office, have onsite meetings, and meet for lunch.

How the car will again revolutionize the world

I've long been a proponent and follower of the idea that cars should drive themselves.  I've watched and read about the Darpa Challenge  and even quietly thought the government should fund a whole parallel  infrastructure where only self driving cars were allowed.     Last October when I found out that google had been working on a project I was downright giddy.  If you haven't seen the video from this year's TED conference it's awesome to see the car in action. Video Below

 Why am a so excited about this prospect?


1. Decoupling of the "you are what you drive" idea-   For some unknown reason people believe their car is an extension of who they are as a person.  "I'm a austin martin" or "I'm a ford pinto".   I am very confident that once you move from a driver of the vehicle to a passenger this oneness with the car will diminish if not disappear altogether and once this happens we can begin to just get in the next car that's going our way.   If a car is just a way to get from A to B then as long as what I'm riding in is safe, comfortable and clean it doesn't really matter and I'm just trying to get somewhere.

2. Cars sit idle most of the day- 85% of the time your car isn't being used.  This is just a plain waste of resources, the world could use a lot fewer cars IF they were used more efficiently, then the resources used to build and maintain those cars could move elsewhere in our society. Maybe most importantly we would need much less parking and parking lots to keep those cars.

3. Usher in the use of electric cars.   Electricity is cleaner and more efficient than gas burning cars.  Given it doesn't matter what car I get in cars can be sent to a charging station when the need charged and a fully charged replaces it on the street to pick up the next passenger

4. Productivity increase-  Americans spend more than 100 hours every year in their car .  That's more than two weeks of work.  There's a lot of lost productivity that could happen now with ipads, smartphones and laptops while people were commuting.   Once there is a realization by business of how much can be done without being in the office there will be less people going into the office, and will just work from home part of the time

5. Goods getting to market faster-  Without the restriction of how much time can be spend driving computers will just drive goods to their destination without stops.   Again this will allow the more than 3,000,000  drivers move to more productive activities for our world.

6. Getting Goods to MY HOUSE- How many of my trips in a car are to "run to get something"?  there's a lot and once the car can pick up some milk and bring it home is there really a reason for me to be inside the thing?

7.  Safety.  There are more than 30,000 people in the US alone killed in accidents.  That's not to mention those hurt or incapacitated for life. Self driving cars won't reduce that to zero but even if it cuts it in half that's great.  Notice I didn't mention safety first.  It's very important but there's so much more promise of a autonomous transportation device.

8. Finally the Flying Car--  Okay I know, I know this is the thing of science fiction but I do hold out some hope here.    My thought is that once we are comfortable with computers driving us around we'll save more on infrastructure costs and make all this other happen faster by just having flying cars.  But maybe that just makes me like this onion anchor.

Layer upon Layer

One of the things that stuck with me from the book I read several months ago "What Technology Wants" is  how written word has contributed to science.  Kelly makes what seems like an obvious point now that without written text we would constantly have to rediscover things.    However,  now we can write down the formula or the methodology or the theorem or proof and it becomes part of the science that following generations can build upon as "fact".     This means the very next thing that is built is just a culmination  of all the work that has happend prior.  

The same is true of the tools and "technology" of today.    The iphone has become one of the best things for technology because it's made it simple enough that even a toddler can use it.   The person who designs the hardware or even the interface doesn't have to know anything about code or processors or any of the lower level technology.  It's been built by prior programers and while always being enhanced by each contributor, those programers allow us to have postions like designers, and User Interface people.

In this way each advance in the tools allows the next people who come along to build something, faster, easier or better looking.   Only in recent years have we seen the rise of the importance of the designer.   That's because before when we were just laying out text on a screen, and data input via keyboard there wasn't that many choices to make.   Technology begets more technology and more jobs for people to focus on different areas of the technology.   There was a time when everyone in computers were a programers, but then we needed more hardware people, network people, database people, help desk, trainers, project managers, designers.   Evolution of the tech, involves evolution of the tools and ultimately the people who use those tools.

Great Launchpad Experience

5 Months ago I received the acceptance email to the Founder Institute.  I had applied just to see if I could get in, once I did I was determined to go even though the class was in Houston.  I told my employer who supported me and helped me to get to classes each week.

Founder Institue is run by the great Adeo Ressi.  I can't say enough good things about Adeo, he's very tough and has been described as "harsh" and that's because he's interested in helping those who are serious build enduring companies.  If you are serious he's your biggest fan and supporter, but if you just thought you might kind of like to start something then it's probably not for you and through the program you'll find that out quickly.  If you just needed a little (or a lot) pressure, accountability, and kick in the pants to start building your dream company then FI is for you, roll up your sleeves and apply.

There's no doubt this program will prevent you and your company from making very rookie mistakes.  Through a combination of great mentors from companies like Mint, Evernote, TechCrunch, Eyefi, BitTorrent, Like, and many more they teach you each week how to build your company and share lessons learned.   You have work to complete each week that's not designed to be just "homework" but make you take steps to build your company.  At the end you have a clear vision, and the basics of getting your company off the ground, and the hard work starts.

Founder Institute is a life changing experience if you've been waiting to start a company, run to enroll in a semester now and get busy, there's no better time than now to start.   Again, I can't say enough good things about Adeo for some reason I think there's 30 hours in his day for all the things he gets done.  

My fellow graduates from Houston.

www.locotext.com
www.eggnest.com
www.cloudwire.tv
www.caringwings.com
www.servicevines.com (me)