To the highest bidder

 

One of the problems with all the app stores is "app discovery" it's searchable but if it's a common keyword maybe you don't find exactly what you are looking for.  I can't imagine it's much longer before apple and google begin to sell "adwords" for apps.   My guess is that it would work exactly like adwords works today on the google search site.   Based on rankings, downloads, and price you are willing to pay some of the results will be sponsored ads.    It's pretty easy money for both Apple/Google and really helps those in the marketplace who have a great product "buy" their way to critical mass.   

We are retuning to "walled gardens" and closed systems, Google was smart to get into the moblie space in a big way, if they are going to maintain growth it will need to be through mobile and that will mean more than just ads on search.  

HI MOM! Look I'm on TV

I'm so bullish on video and the idea that you can see anyone, anywhere, anytime.   I can Imagine Dr's talking to patients without the person leaving the house, or for example I'm dealing with a car insurance issue currently what if though a video chat I could show the adjuster what he needed to see?    Not to mention the obvious use of families making connections.  Video Communications breaks down physical barriers.  It's a technical, and social evolution.

Of course all this is dependent on a few things.  Facetime, Skype, gtalk, AOL, Facebook etc etc all need to agree on a common set of protocols and connection methods.   We need a "DNS" for video calls.  Email systems work this way, as to plain telephone networks.  It doesn't matter who makes my home phone or who I have service with, I can call anyone else with a landline.  We don't both need Bell South, we both don't need a panasonic phone land line calling just works.    Common set of protocols and a common directory will have to happen for the idea to get traction.   Service providers or Hardware manufactures can then work on providing enhanced services if you both have have an Apple phone for instance.

The other issue is just the social issue of having to look at someone.  There's an awkward gaze and it seems wrong to multitask while having a conversation.   However, I think  social barriers will break down.  Apple has helped this a lot by including facetime on the ipod touch.   A generation will grow up talking to their friends while looking them in the eye.   Once this happens the stigma of needing to be physically present will fade way, and going somewhere will become more rare, work will change, relationships will change and the world will change.

Pony express now delivers letters every day.

One of the most common criticisms I hear of online interactions is they aren't real.  I'm not sure what "real" means except to say that i expect to most people it means face to face.    While face to face communications are still important and will alway be, they aren't required any longer to maintain relationships.

I've seen several articles like this one  that state teen driving is down.   I think this is a real fundamental switch in the way people interact.   When I turned 16 I got my drivers license that same day.  I drove to town so I could meet others and go where I wanted, all to "maintain" relationships.   But that was before myspace, facebook, twitter, AIM, xbox live and most importantly SMS.

Now relationships are created, developed and cultivated over the air, on our mobile phones, computers, and  consoles.   Take for example that some 20% of marriages now were the result of meeting online.  Even if the relationship isn't formed online, once you form a real relationship you can do a good job of maintaining that via online services and text messaging.  

Finally,  I think that is a real reason that the older generation just doesn't get "social networking" and wonder why would someone text hundreds of messages a day .   At one time the barrier to getting a "typed" or printed document to someone was very high.   There was a high cost to typing or writing a document and then mailing or somehow getting the document to recipient wasn't trivial so what you wrote down NEEDED TO BE WORTHY OF THE COST.   Thus the follow through that these people think online updates are full of mindless dribble about what someone had a for lunch.   The same people wouldn't hesitate to tell someone face to face what they had for lunch but by typing it somehow transforms that to meaningless information.  However, that's not how the current generation sees it, they see it as maintaining a REAL relationship.

End of the line

Efficient markets demand that supply and demand are in equilibrium. One place that currently isn't the place is waiting in line. I think that waiting in line is still an example of bad markets. There's more demand then supply at the time. But usually it's peak demand that people haven't planned for. Mobile technology can help to alleviate some of this wasted time.

This can be done in two ways. The first is that mobile allows people to be more productive while waiting around. Now because people have smart phones they can check email. Update their status, text or talk to others etc. But more importantly mobile tech will evolve the "check in" into actually reserving a place in line. There's really no reason this can't happen today.

Imagine that you go to get your haircut rather than just sit there you check into your shop before you arrive you see how long before someone can meet with you, you ask to get a text within 10 min of when it's time to get your haircut. Now you can be busy doing other things. What about the store? You see how long lines are before you arrive, you get notified when it's your turn to checkout. Getting your oil changed or other car repair, The dr.'s office, etc .

Mobile tech should be the "end of the line", this should improve everyone's life and create more efficiency  in the market.

Return of the Portal

All things old are new again.  I'm convinced the mobile apps movement is progressing at  breakneck speeds.    We aren't more than a year or two away from the "web" as we know it being regulated to an afterthought or become the second thing that gets developed for, it will be mobile first as Fred wilson says .

I believe this will evolve into content creators and media companies returning to the old idea of the web as the walled garden approach.   Web 2.0 was all about API's and mash-ups the app model will make entrepreneurs return to the idea of the early 2000's web of getting someone to your site and keeping them there.  This time it will be to try to get you to install the app and never close it by providing a large breadth of content all with ads surrounding it.

Think of this as being the equivalent of today's newspaper and magazine only with metrics of who is interacting with the ad. Again this is the same as the click through idea of the old display ads.  Now I'm sure (or not) that markers of learned a little from the old days and will try and provide relevant ads based on location, and other things fed into the app through facebook and the like.   Overall I think this is a step backward but we all have "app fever" and brands, startups and old media companies know it and will capitalize on it.

Not looking far enough down the road on data centers

I remember 2 or 3 years ago thinking that we would be moving toward "the cloud" and that would require more space for companies who provided web services will need space for their services. This would necessitate building of larger data centers where people could house their severs. The way I saw this as an opportunity for someone who wanted to build out this infrastructure

Well fast forward to today and while we have moved toward the cloud in email and sales software, etc. I didn't consider consolidation within the cloud. There's an undeniable move toward efficiency I guess I missed the idea that would end up with all the service providers using a few cloud companies. They will build their own data centers not lease a rack in a third party place. Look at companies like amazon, salesforce, google, rackspace are all building out custom data centers. Web startups are just using these mammoth Internet companies and i don't see that changing. There may be a niche still for some companies to lease some server space in the end we'll all be just buying cycles of someone else's cloud.

Apple's new cloud

The evolution of the interface

Why would anyone want to take their hands off the keyboard?   I can do things a lot faster via the keyboard than with this stupid mouse.  And thus everyone thought the graphical interface was a fad or a dumbing down of the system.  Of course at first this was true.   It did take longer to go to file, print than / f,  p.  

Then the interface evolved and become not bound by words and text only.  I could have pictures of what the function did.  I could nested menus.  I could multi task and quickly switch applications and thus programmers, designers and users made the most of what was available to them, and no one wants to go back.

I expect a similar evolution with the touch interface.  Everyone today says "the mouse is much faster"  I have to reach up and touch the computer screen.  My guess is that the interface will evolve and my best guess as that manifests itself in being able to talk to your computer.  My andriod device has that feature and it's surprisingly better than any Text to speech I've used.  My guess is partially expectations have changed, partially the technology has gotten better thanks to the cloud, and probably most importantly we have learned how to "speak to the computer" articulating our words better and speaking in short bursts.

There's no going back from touch,  just like no one will want to go back to the monochrome screen, but we will evolve and the technology will evolve with us.