Incremental progress is very marginal

I recently read a book from a guy who I have a lot of respect for.  Kevin Kelly has a great blog  and his book "what technology wants" is fantastic.  

In this book he tells the story of a missionary who is working in china.  In the village that he works with all the people gather crops manually without the use of any tools.   Of course the missionary saw how inefficient this was and wanted to help so he ordered a Sickle from his home country and had it sent.  Of course the villagers at first thought the technology was great.  The sickle was going to save them so much time and labor.   But that evening the villagers had a meeting among themselves.  The next morning the chief told the missionary the sickle must be destroyed.  Why the missionary asked?  The Chief explained that the tribe was concerned that a thief would get a hold of the tool and be able to steal all of their crops in a single night.  

This is the plight of technology, all technology has some good points and and some bad points.  Many people will tell you your idea is bad or that technology is the demise of our culture. However, all imaginable technology is neither 100% good or 100% bad.  Technology and ideas are some combination of both good and bad.  So the question that really must be ask is, does this technology's good points outweigh the bad.  As long as the idea is 49% bad and 51% good then we are making progress.  That means we are helping society.  Today cars kill 40,000 people a year.  What if we built "robot" cars that drove themselves and took people places but accidentally killed 20,000 people would be clamoring to say that we needed to remove the robot cars despite less people were being killed.  Progress comes in incremental levels 1% at a time. 

Only the best survive- Founder Institute Houston

Here are the latest from my founder institute class.  We've lost a lot of members between the first night and the third session.  If you are thinking you are ready for a startup incubator you better make sure that you've thought a lot about your idea, and you know what you're made of.   This program isn't for people who think they sort of kind of might want to start something someday and wow look cool the Mint guy is a mentor so I'll join.  If that's you don't waste your time or your peers and mentors, there's a good chance you'll not make it.

It's also not for people with thin skin in the third session not one person who pitched their idea was told "hey that sounded great let's tweak it just a little".  No you were pushed hard on the how and why of your idea? Is the market big enough?  What problem are you solving and one of the main questions is always "What are you building again?"   While that seems easy I think founders are "cursed with knowledge" to borrow a line from Chip and Dan Heath's Made to stick  .   They've thought about their idea so long it seems to them like everyone should just naturally understand it, guess what THEY DON'T. You better get to the point you can explain it in one sentence in a way your mom knows what you're talking about.  Simple, Simple, Simple

Founder Institute is really a challenge and I find it stretching my abilities in a good way.   It's rough traveling from Oklahoma once a week but as they say what doesn't kill you.   Here are some of my takeaway's from the 3rd session.

1. You aren't going to be the first person with this idea and if you are it probably sucks or is too early.  This goes right in line with what I remember reading from Steve Blank's blog a few weeks ago, which talks about the first to market fallacy.
2. While you need to be lean and flexible (see lean startup) but you can also rule out a lot of ideas with research. and lots of it.   You need to know how big your market is?  Who are your competitors (yes there are some) and what kind of market are you in (again you think this part is easy but it's not) 
3. You can find a lot of this using competitor's blogs, press releases, twitter, delicious, etc, there's a good chance they've done a lot of the research for you
4. Figure out how to get to $100 million in revenue in 5 years if you expect to build an enduring company.
5. Know your value proposition as Dave McClure says "Your solution is not my problem" if it isn't a pain point for people you are going to have a tough time convincing people to use it.

In summary, Be flexible with a very simple idea with a great value prop, in a big market (greater than 1Billion) by doing a lot of research and interviews. 

The Beginning

In mid October I found out I was accepted to the Founder Institute.   While honored to be accepted after taking the test and completed the application, I figured Houston was just too far to commute for 14+ weeks.   After thinking about it further and realizing that my friends where tired of hearing the ten thousand start up ideas I had I decided to see if I had what it took to create and manage my dream company.   I told my employer about my intentions to make the weekly commute to Houston and to my surprise they were so supportive of what I was doing they offered to become early "investors" by paying for me to fly down each week.   I can't say enough times the group of guys I work with you'd never find anywhere else.

Enough with how I arrived and more about the program itself.    Entrance into the program is based on an application and a couple of tests that test your ability to learn, and adapt.  The institute is a top notch program, I did my research.  Adeo, the founder has created over 2 Billion and value in companies he has either started or been involved in.   The CEO mentor list reads like a who's who in Silicon Valley, mentors from  household names like Mint, Evernote, QIK, techcruch, Evernote, Blippy, eyefi, etc.   The program is structured for those of us who still have "day jobs" as all the classes are at night.   This is different than other startup incubator programs like techstars or Y combinator.   Also different from those other programs you don't have to have a co-founder (which I do not) or have a set idea, yet Founder Institute is the largest startup incubator with classes all over the world.

The first class reminded me of the first day of western civ in at a university I attended.  It was the make or break class.  Adeo, made you question your resolve to see if you were really going to finish what you start.   He was clear about the effort required and that many people don't make it.  BUT if you do make it to graduation you'll have an awesome company.    I was also astounded how he was focused on your idea (if you had one) and was all business but took a genuine interest in you and your idea.   He's a pretty amazing person in my dealings thus far.  The first night we were divided into groups and given a pretty lengthy assignment to separate those who where there to check it out and those who were ready to get to work.

I was also lucky enough to schedule some "office hours" with him the next morning.  This was one of four 30 min sessions he offered to help you to refine your idea.   I had about four and he was quick to help me narrow it down.   Again, he showed he really wanted me to succeed.

Our small group has proven to be made of some pretty spectacular people.   They are all very smart with great ideas but the thing I like most is their willingness to help you with your idea.   Our group in the 3 meetings we have had thus far has proven to be awesome with lots of sharing of ideas and improvements to others ideas.  I can't wait to see what these guys build.

The first "real" class was on vision and values and our speakers where Matt Mandell who founded DC snacks and City Centric, Phil Libin of evernote and of course Adeo.  All the talks were good enough I went back and re-watched some of them on the FI site.   The next assignment is proving to be quite a chore but one I'm looking forward to getting it done.     There's no doubt I'm going to learn something through this process.    Who knows if I'll be successful but I'll have tried and learned and that's worth the price of this effort regardless.    

To the highest bidder

 

One of the problems with all the app stores is "app discovery" it's searchable but if it's a common keyword maybe you don't find exactly what you are looking for.  I can't imagine it's much longer before apple and google begin to sell "adwords" for apps.   My guess is that it would work exactly like adwords works today on the google search site.   Based on rankings, downloads, and price you are willing to pay some of the results will be sponsored ads.    It's pretty easy money for both Apple/Google and really helps those in the marketplace who have a great product "buy" their way to critical mass.   

We are retuning to "walled gardens" and closed systems, Google was smart to get into the moblie space in a big way, if they are going to maintain growth it will need to be through mobile and that will mean more than just ads on search.  

HI MOM! Look I'm on TV

I'm so bullish on video and the idea that you can see anyone, anywhere, anytime.   I can Imagine Dr's talking to patients without the person leaving the house, or for example I'm dealing with a car insurance issue currently what if though a video chat I could show the adjuster what he needed to see?    Not to mention the obvious use of families making connections.  Video Communications breaks down physical barriers.  It's a technical, and social evolution.

Of course all this is dependent on a few things.  Facetime, Skype, gtalk, AOL, Facebook etc etc all need to agree on a common set of protocols and connection methods.   We need a "DNS" for video calls.  Email systems work this way, as to plain telephone networks.  It doesn't matter who makes my home phone or who I have service with, I can call anyone else with a landline.  We don't both need Bell South, we both don't need a panasonic phone land line calling just works.    Common set of protocols and a common directory will have to happen for the idea to get traction.   Service providers or Hardware manufactures can then work on providing enhanced services if you both have have an Apple phone for instance.

The other issue is just the social issue of having to look at someone.  There's an awkward gaze and it seems wrong to multitask while having a conversation.   However, I think  social barriers will break down.  Apple has helped this a lot by including facetime on the ipod touch.   A generation will grow up talking to their friends while looking them in the eye.   Once this happens the stigma of needing to be physically present will fade way, and going somewhere will become more rare, work will change, relationships will change and the world will change.

Pony express now delivers letters every day.

One of the most common criticisms I hear of online interactions is they aren't real.  I'm not sure what "real" means except to say that i expect to most people it means face to face.    While face to face communications are still important and will alway be, they aren't required any longer to maintain relationships.

I've seen several articles like this one  that state teen driving is down.   I think this is a real fundamental switch in the way people interact.   When I turned 16 I got my drivers license that same day.  I drove to town so I could meet others and go where I wanted, all to "maintain" relationships.   But that was before myspace, facebook, twitter, AIM, xbox live and most importantly SMS.

Now relationships are created, developed and cultivated over the air, on our mobile phones, computers, and  consoles.   Take for example that some 20% of marriages now were the result of meeting online.  Even if the relationship isn't formed online, once you form a real relationship you can do a good job of maintaining that via online services and text messaging.  

Finally,  I think that is a real reason that the older generation just doesn't get "social networking" and wonder why would someone text hundreds of messages a day .   At one time the barrier to getting a "typed" or printed document to someone was very high.   There was a high cost to typing or writing a document and then mailing or somehow getting the document to recipient wasn't trivial so what you wrote down NEEDED TO BE WORTHY OF THE COST.   Thus the follow through that these people think online updates are full of mindless dribble about what someone had a for lunch.   The same people wouldn't hesitate to tell someone face to face what they had for lunch but by typing it somehow transforms that to meaningless information.  However, that's not how the current generation sees it, they see it as maintaining a REAL relationship.

End of the line

Efficient markets demand that supply and demand are in equilibrium. One place that currently isn't the place is waiting in line. I think that waiting in line is still an example of bad markets. There's more demand then supply at the time. But usually it's peak demand that people haven't planned for. Mobile technology can help to alleviate some of this wasted time.

This can be done in two ways. The first is that mobile allows people to be more productive while waiting around. Now because people have smart phones they can check email. Update their status, text or talk to others etc. But more importantly mobile tech will evolve the "check in" into actually reserving a place in line. There's really no reason this can't happen today.

Imagine that you go to get your haircut rather than just sit there you check into your shop before you arrive you see how long before someone can meet with you, you ask to get a text within 10 min of when it's time to get your haircut. Now you can be busy doing other things. What about the store? You see how long lines are before you arrive, you get notified when it's your turn to checkout. Getting your oil changed or other car repair, The dr.'s office, etc .

Mobile tech should be the "end of the line", this should improve everyone's life and create more efficiency  in the market.

Return of the Portal

All things old are new again.  I'm convinced the mobile apps movement is progressing at  breakneck speeds.    We aren't more than a year or two away from the "web" as we know it being regulated to an afterthought or become the second thing that gets developed for, it will be mobile first as Fred wilson says .

I believe this will evolve into content creators and media companies returning to the old idea of the web as the walled garden approach.   Web 2.0 was all about API's and mash-ups the app model will make entrepreneurs return to the idea of the early 2000's web of getting someone to your site and keeping them there.  This time it will be to try to get you to install the app and never close it by providing a large breadth of content all with ads surrounding it.

Think of this as being the equivalent of today's newspaper and magazine only with metrics of who is interacting with the ad. Again this is the same as the click through idea of the old display ads.  Now I'm sure (or not) that markers of learned a little from the old days and will try and provide relevant ads based on location, and other things fed into the app through facebook and the like.   Overall I think this is a step backward but we all have "app fever" and brands, startups and old media companies know it and will capitalize on it.

Not looking far enough down the road on data centers

I remember 2 or 3 years ago thinking that we would be moving toward "the cloud" and that would require more space for companies who provided web services will need space for their services. This would necessitate building of larger data centers where people could house their severs. The way I saw this as an opportunity for someone who wanted to build out this infrastructure

Well fast forward to today and while we have moved toward the cloud in email and sales software, etc. I didn't consider consolidation within the cloud. There's an undeniable move toward efficiency I guess I missed the idea that would end up with all the service providers using a few cloud companies. They will build their own data centers not lease a rack in a third party place. Look at companies like amazon, salesforce, google, rackspace are all building out custom data centers. Web startups are just using these mammoth Internet companies and i don't see that changing. There may be a niche still for some companies to lease some server space in the end we'll all be just buying cycles of someone else's cloud.

Apple's new cloud

The evolution of the interface

Why would anyone want to take their hands off the keyboard?   I can do things a lot faster via the keyboard than with this stupid mouse.  And thus everyone thought the graphical interface was a fad or a dumbing down of the system.  Of course at first this was true.   It did take longer to go to file, print than / f,  p.  

Then the interface evolved and become not bound by words and text only.  I could have pictures of what the function did.  I could nested menus.  I could multi task and quickly switch applications and thus programmers, designers and users made the most of what was available to them, and no one wants to go back.

I expect a similar evolution with the touch interface.  Everyone today says "the mouse is much faster"  I have to reach up and touch the computer screen.  My guess is that the interface will evolve and my best guess as that manifests itself in being able to talk to your computer.  My andriod device has that feature and it's surprisingly better than any Text to speech I've used.  My guess is partially expectations have changed, partially the technology has gotten better thanks to the cloud, and probably most importantly we have learned how to "speak to the computer" articulating our words better and speaking in short bursts.

There's no going back from touch,  just like no one will want to go back to the monochrome screen, but we will evolve and the technology will evolve with us.

Horse Shoe professional

The days of companies needing someone to "fix their computers" or "maintain their systems" are coming to a close.  You don't need the equivalent of a computer plumber around your Small business or  your house.  At the least you'll  need less of them.  Cloud services and stateless devices will render the days of needing your computer fixed into history like needing your horses shoed .   Local storage will only be a cache of what's on the web and if your computer breaks you'll just replace it login and everything will be just like you left it.

This process will continue into services like email, and even line of business software.  The highest and best use for those people and resources is in a consolidated company where all they do is email, or file sharing or data and storage managerial and sell those services, it's really what's most efficient for everyone.

Real IT people will need to prove their worth by taking their company to levels beyond what can be achieved in the open market.  Your company doesn't need you anymore to pick out the best email, or the best laptops. If your company had IT to just keep things running the good news is you won't need them much longer.  Small business will have all newest technology pushed on them from their suppliers, vendors and business partners.  The bad news is that you'll then be like everyone else.  The good news is you can take those dollars and reallocate them into not being told what to do but innovating into real market differentiators so you can tell others what to do.

thoughts on having the right people

a friend of mine ask me my thoughts on retention and hiring.  I decided to post them here since it too me so long to catalyze them. Many of the ideas aren’t my own but just what I’ve read and incorporated into my management style.  Not sure that there’s much you can use in here.   But here are my thoughts.


As it relates to interviewing people I remember the lesson learned from the book “peopleware”.  The author states that if you were hiring for a juggler for the circus what's the one thing you would want to see?   Of course the answer is juggle.  However, most technical people are hired without ever "juggling".   Therefore, when getting down to a few candidates (normally two or three) we ask them to come in and present to the group a technical topic of their choosing.  If they are a developer usually a code walkthrough is normal with a time of Q&A from the rest of the team.  This does two things it allows us to see the candidate "juggle" and helps other team members have buy-in to the process. During the screening process I look for people with demonstrated drive and passion for what they do. Particular skill sets aren't the most important.  Things that are most important are  fit with the team, aptitude, and passion for what they do.  Getting the right person and not settling is only half the battle as we all know a single good person is worth more than two mediocre people.

Once you get the right person keeping them there is key.  The most important thing is to make sure they feel their work is meaningful. This is the single biggest driver to a person’s happiness in their job.  You want to make sure that key people feel like they are making contribution to the both their goals and that of the organization.  Much has already been written on motivation, money and recognition.  I think Daniel Pink talks a lot about these ideas in “drive”.  My goal is to replace some of the market norms with social norms. This kind of thing was talked about in the book “predictably irrational”.  The methodology is to really get to know my employees and find out what's important to them.   For example, If a guy likes to play golf I'll tell him to cut out at noon and pay for him to play golf.   In turn I hope this builds loyalty to our company.   I don't believe in scheduled bonuses as I think they just become an expected part of salary.  I try and give unexpected project bonuses.   However, the most memorable  bonuses are those like the wii to the game player or the ipod to the music lover.   These type of non monetary bonuses are viewed by the employee as  worth more than just a check.  Additionally,  as a group we try and go on a few departmental outings or lunches and schedule some late night departmental game nights.  Building a tightly knit team who have shared goals and meaningful work is ultimately how you retain the best talent.   Make them love to come to work.

Open mouth insert....never mind I deleted it

It's obvious that the "recall " message function in email systems have become useless in the world of blackberries and distributed systems if you say something you shouldn't that's too bad. Just like the real world you ju st have to apologize over and over if you screw up. The other day I received an offer via email that was an accident. The company spent the rest of the day doing damage control over the accidental email.

Enter the cloud and social. If I screw up there I just delete it. If I catch it soon enough maybe no one sees it. If I don't I can at least get rid of the "evidence" and limit the damage from others who might see it. Of course all this depends on s "closed" system and that I can trust the site to allow me to permanently expunge it from the record. I'm not saying this is good or bad but seems to be a difference in email vs other systems.

Rolex or an app for your company

I really have to hand it to apple. They make technology both elegant and very usable. Almost too much so. People who love tech have seen the possibilities of the moblie internet for a long time but no matter how we tried to explain all execs could see is the utility of email on their very ugly blackberries. Enter apple with the iPhone so easy even a CEO can browse the Internet using it. Then along comes golf apps and other executive apps that are easy to install and use, suddenly everyone can see the "future" and the future is apps.

Now most technologists would say maybe just a nice moblie site will do. No we need an app. Why? Thie app is the new status artifact for the CEO. It says that my company is leading edge and here's a conversation starter let me show you our app. So while a good suit and a nice watch would have worked 10 years ago now to show that we mean business I'll need to show you my app.

Moving about

So yesterday I found out that a friend I had I the fairview youth group passed away in a car wreck. Garrett bowlan was driving about 7:30 in the morning in Woodward when he crossead the center line and hit a semi head on.

Automobile accidents for some reason have become "acceptable" losses for our society. Really technologically there's no reason this has to be the case. An proper infstucture and standards could not only eliminate accidents but also increase productivity during commute time and probably change some social norms about the need to own ones own car.

Pods of single rider trains are the future and hopefully in between we can create something to make our lives more productive and less full of a late night surprise phone call about someone we care about

It's magical

So this is my first post from my iPad. When jobs unveiled it I was Pretty skeptical. So much so I really didn't want one. But as I saw innovation from the devs specifically the flipboard and netflix I wanted to try it. So I bought a used one. (which is a story for another day)

One of the things I noticed quickly though is that it's really a "lean back device". It's great for reading rss and Twitter and Facebook. Is is what I spend the majority of my time doing in the evening on the couch. I'm nit sure how great it will be for actually doing anything but I will say I agree with jobs that the technology really gets out of the way and you can consume the media. Also the battery is all it's cracked up to be.

While I would have preferred to get an android device I don't think we'll see one until the end of the year or maybe first of 2011. Even then the apps will be far behind what the apple devs are doing. But there's no doubt that they will catch up and when they do I'm sure it will be time for the Jackson family to get a new tablet..

Only time will tell if the honeymoon phase wears off and I have buyers remorse. So far though its pert great

Your last 4 years

These are the last 4 years, that should be your thoughts when the right company enters your market. 4 years before my industry is forever changed. In 2000 napster was released and then shortly on the heels of that itunes was released by 2008 they were the largest music retailer. The kindle was released and 4 years later they were selling more virtual books than hardbound books. 1998 google received it's first funding by 2002 they were the largest search engine.

Once the right company enters the market it's too late. How will you know, because by the time you do it will be too late. You won't disappear overnight, it will be happen over time. A little slower next year than last until finally there's no margin or volume left. Do you have a plan B, or can you devlop the right product to be "That company"

People want to use the internet to find people like them

but they want to do it with mass market tools. People don't want a search engine for their business and one for their home life they want google to handle both. People who love pets don't want a social network for their dog, they want facebook to handle it. People don't want a geeky smartphone, grandma smartphone and a business phone, they want an iphone.

The internet is great of for helping people reconnect and to create silos of people who think like you and have the same interests but they don't want a separate technology for each one of their lives. They want one technology to understand all the varied parts of their life.

In short it's easy to think that hey that technology works great let's build a knock off for this niche. And in a few cases it works but in most cases people want mass market tools to manage the niches of their life.

Moving faster

Facetime for Iphone, Ipads, tablets, andriod 2ghz moblie devices. Things are moving faster each day. One thing We know though with all that mobile tech we are going to need fast wireless data pipes.

Teleconferencing has the ability to change social norms. Can the network keep up?

Wasting Time

today I'm convinced we live the most exciting time of change in the past 60+ years and one of a 3-4 fundamental shifts in the history of the world and mostly I'm sitting here just collecting a check trying to help maintain the "status-quo" .

June 6th Pre Iphone 4.0 release

Purpose of the renewal of posting is to be more diligent about what I do each and every day.

today is the day before the iphone 4.0 release. Steve Jobs and apple did a real job reinventing the phone space 3 years ago. Before then carriers wouldn't put Wifi in handsets, nor let you download your own pictures without a data plan or even put music on the phone. The iphone changed all that and it really was a great piece of style design and usability. But it's hard to make game changing enhancements year after year and this may be the year Google and andriod team has caught up. I expect save some earth shattering revelation I will move to the andriod this summer. Megan just got hers and i really like the openness. As we move to moblie here are my questions

1. Can networks keep up with the demand? The pace of users need for data is currently out-pacing the carriers ability to roll out that tech.

2. How long before you can just dock your moblie phone into a cradle and use as your pc.

3. If #2 is true then everything will/should reside in the could where it's accessible anywhere